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We're a week away from the All-Star break and teams will be stretching out their rotations before Week 14 is up. This may not be the best time throw much risk into your lineup before things start to shift in the second half, but there's always a need for effective streamers so we continue with our weekly series on two-start streamers.
This fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column will identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week, ahead of the Sunday night waiver wire runs for leagues with weekly transactions.
This list will be limited to players under 50% rostered in Yahoo leagues and divided into three sections based on recommendation levels: solid starters, risky streamers, and must-avoids.
David Peterson, New York Mets - 39% rostered
Peterson continues to gain steam as a viable fantasy rotation piece but his rostered rate isn't keeping pace. His most recent start in Cincinnati was a letdown but he still struck out seven batters, making 32 K over his past four starts (22 IP). Peterson has better ratios on the road this season, oddly enough, and will be away from Shea, er, Citi Field twice this week. The Braves still rank near the top of the K% chart for team offenses at third. The Cubs are in the top half at 14th for the season but over the past week have the fourth-highest K-rate at 27.1%. Peterson should be in line for two strong outings and warrants adding in 12+ team leagues.
Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs - 9% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs BAL, vs NYM
Other than a hiccup against the Pirates, Steele has been solid for the past month. That June 23rd outing vs Pittsburgh was the only time he allowed more than two ER in a start since the calendar flipped to June. That gives him a 2.72 ERA over the past six starts.
The walks haven't disappeared during that span; he's walked seven in the past two starts alone. Luckily, he gets a weak Orioles offense that walks at the fourth-lowest rate in the league at 7.4% and a Mets offense that is gradually cooling from their strong start to the season and also walks below the league-average rate (7.9%). Steele is likely to remain a low-owned starter who could surprise with a great week.
Michael Pineda, Detroit Tigers - 6% rostered
It's tough to disagree with the algorithm set forth by JA's Start/Sit recommendations but I'm trusting Pineda this week; he gets a 25 in the first matchup and a lowly 15 when facing Cleveland. I get it - his Statcast profile sliders have more blues than a B.B. King playlist. Despite all his expected stats ranking in the first or second percentile and a 13.2% K%, Pineda can help fantasy teams.
In seven starts this season for Detroit, Pineda has only allowed more than three ER once. He holds a 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP because he just doesn't walk batters. He just faced the same two teams he'll get this week except now he goes on the road to face KC and Cleveland. Neither offense is terrifying and he managed to get through five innings in each outing. As a fly ball pitcher, he simply needs to avoid the long ball to produce a good start; the Royals are 24th and Guardians 28th in HR this season. The lack of strikeouts is an issue, admittedly, but the floor is fairly stable with Pineda in terms of ratios.
Beau Brieske, Detroit Tigers - 6% rostered
I'm doubling down here, not just on Tigers starters but on Brieske himself. Admittedly, this tweet did not age too well:
There's a lot to like about this week's batch of two-start SP streamers. In writing this week's column, I've convinced myself to pick up Beau Brieske in all leagues. Find out why... #fantasybaseball https://t.co/TNLql32xkh
— Pierre Camus (@Roto_Chef) June 18, 2022
In those two starts, he gave up nine runs and 11 hits over eight 2/3 innings to Boston and Arizona. Sorry, y'all.
Of course, in his very next two starts he tossed a QS against KC and then blanked the White Sox over six and a third, getting back to what made him successful before I vouched for him. He relied less on his four-seamer and mixed in his effective changeup and slider more often.
I'm clearly not worried about the Royals or Guardians too much although I'd prefer if at least one of these starts was at home. It's not as if Brieske doesn't carry risk so only employ him if the above options aren't available.
Cal Quantrill, Cleveland Guardians - 47% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs CHW, vs DET
You know what you're getting with Quantrill - more often than not a quality start is in store albeit with a low K output. Every once in a while he gets hit hard, usually by lefty-stacked lineups. Turns out he'll get two teams that don't have many left-handed bats but they are hot offenses that should be taken seriously.
Over the past two weeks, both Chicago and Detroit are top-10 in runs scored. That's right, the Tigers are suddenly a potent offense that has scored the third-most runs in the past week. The addition of Riley Greene at the leadoff spot has been a spark and Victor Reyes is hitting the ball well behind him. Quantrill is the type of pitcher who never really has that high of a ceiling or too low of a floor, so roll him out as an innings-eater if needed but be wary this week.
Steven Matz, St. Louis Cardinals - 20% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs LAD, vs CIN
The risk is more than obvious here as Matz hasn't pitched since May 22nd with a shoulder impingement in his throwing arm. Before that, he pitched to a 6.03 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in his first nine starts as a Cardinal. It's hard to imagine rolling him out in his first appearance back against the Dodgers. Cincinnati is a far more favorable draw but when looking for a weekly streamer, the downside outweighs the potential reward here.
Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals - 9% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs DET, @TOR
Keller simply can't be trusted against tough teams and the Blue Jays qualify as such, especially in the Rogers Centre which is sixth in HR Factor and eighth in Run Factor. As mentioned above, Detroit is performing better on offense lately so it's not a gimme even though he's been very successful in two outings against them this season.
Josh Winder, Minnesota Twins - 5% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs MIL, vs CWS
Winder didn't screw fantasy managers over quite as much as Brieske but he also pulled the rug out from under us earlier this year. Coming off two scoreless starts lasting six innings, he had lowered his ERA to 1.61 in early May and was emerging as a strong waiver wire add. He predictably got smacked around in his next two outings (not just one, mind you) and then hit the IL for over a month. Since coming back, he held Cleveland scoreless over six innings and gave up two runs over five innings to the White Sox. Is he back in the circle of trust?
Not quite. Winder not only doesn't have the track record to show he can be relied upon, he is only striking out 16.1% of batters faced. The schedule isn't overly favorable either. In deep-enough leagues, he can be taken as a flier.
Daniel Castano, Miami Marlins - 4% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs PIT, vs PHI
As predicted, Castano struggled against the Mets in his most recent start and has been inconsistent in his time as a starter. He relies on inducing grounders with an 87 MPH cutter so as to avoid hard contact. He won't pile up Ks and needs to be careful when facing power-hitting teams.
Unfortunately, he gets Philly in his second turn this coming week. They have been successful against cutters this season, posting the seventh-highest OPS (.845) on that pitch. Pittsburgh has struggled and can always allow for a a nice outing by the opposing pitcher. When accounting for Castano's full pitch mix, Pittsburgh's offense holds the third-lowest OPS. You can get by with him once but twice might be pushing your luck.
Daniel Lynch, Kansas City Royals - 3% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs DET, @TOR
Lynch was coming off two strong outings, his only two of this season really, when he hit the IL with a blister. These things tend to nag so there's a good chance he has issues with it again or is on a pitch count. There's enough arm talent to tempt those in AL-only leagues to give him a shot but I would put him on the very lower end of the spectrum of potential streamers.
Jason Alexander, Milwaukee Brewers - 1% rostered
Solid at first, Alexander's re-entry to the rotation came with disastrous results. He let the Cubs get to him for seven runs (six earned) on eight hits. Before then, he'd pitched to a 3.82 ERA over the first 30 2/3 innings of his MLB career after debuting on June 1st. There are plenty of reasons to be wary aside from his last outing, though. He's only accumulated 17 K in 36 IP, gets two somewhat tough road tests this week, and is not a hard pitcher to figure out based on a 63% fastball usage rate. He profiles better in the bullpen if he is going to stick with the Brewers.
Bryse Wilson, Pittsburgh Pirates - 0% rostered
After pitching to a 6.60 ERA across 46 1/3 innings for the Bucs, Wilson was relegated to Triple-A for a spell. He looked dominant there, sporting a 29/5 K/BB rate, 3.16 ERA, and 1.05 WHIP in five starts. He has flip-flopped between the big club and Indy but has made two starts for the Pirates in July, looking sharp both times out.
He is scheduled to stay up for two starts this coming week against Miami and Colorado. He's been a different pitcher since getting recalled, only walking one batter in those two starts. The home run ball continues to be his weakness, however, as he did allow one in each game. It's hard to know what to expect but it's obvious that there is risk each time he takes the mound, especially when he heads to Coors.
Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies - 4% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs SD, vs PIT
The fact that both of Gomber's starts this week will be at Coors Field is a non-issue as he's been equally bad on the road, posting a 6.28 ERA in away games and 6.64 ERA at home. At this point, the occasional good days are rare for him.
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates - 3% rostered
You know the drill by now. The schedule matters very little with Keller; he always runs the risk of wrecking your fantasy stats. The fact that his second start will be in the thin air of Colorado is just the nail in the coffin.
Glenn Otto, Texas Rangers - 3% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs OAK, vs SEA
It has been a roller coaster season for Otto with more downs than ups recently. Curiously, he's been far worse at home this season, posting an 8.02 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in five starts as opposed to a 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in six road starts. That combined with his recent struggles is enough reason to steer clear.
Spencer Howard, Texas Rangers - 1% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs OAK, vs SEA
Ugh. So far this season, Howard has pitched 10 2/3 innings with the Rangers. He's allowed 13 runs and 16 hits, including six home runs. Fun fact: he gave up the fourth-hardest hit ball of the season when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took his cutter out of the park at 117.9 MPH in the opening week. It seems like he's just never recovered from that moonshot. Truth is, Howard is a once-promising high-end prospect whose career was derailed by injury. The Phillies gave up on him for a reason.
Jose Urena, Colorado Rockies - 0% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs SD, vs PIT
The former Marlin and Tiger is now a part of the Rockies' rotation. It stands to reason that's a far worse place to pitch for a player who has a career 4.73 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He caught the Dodgers off guard the other day, limiting them to one run and five hits over six 2/3 IP but don't push your luck here - he's a low strikeout pitcher who is best left alone.
Adrian Martinez, Oakland A's - 0% rostered
Martinez did the thing that rookies keep doing this year by making an excellent debut and then collapsing immediately afterward. He was pounded for 15 hits including four homers over his next two starts. Martinez is pitching out of necessity with Frankie Montas out and may even stick in the rotation once he gets traded. That doesn't mean he belongs on fantasy rosters, especially with a road trip to Texas on tap.
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